I continue to watch the latest 2024 Boglehead Conference videos and again thank everyone involved for making these available, to the world, free of charge. Honestly I consider this the highest form of charity...teaching others how to fish.
I forget if Bill Bengen has been at any of the prior conferences, but I'm particularly tuned into him at this year's, as I've followed his work almost since the beginning in 1994. He has not been part of the Boglehead world, directly, until recently, but his work has been discussed by us forever. He's clearly a genius and early-on recognized that computer power could help solve retirement planning issues that were previously just fuzzy guesses. But around 2010, I found out that he didn't eat his own cooking and got out of the market. I later found out, as he readily admits now, that he didn't get back in until late and it cost him dearly.
Now, on the 2024 Conference "Withdrawal Rate Rumble" session (link posted here, below), he says two things that, frankly, make me a bit crazy. One is that we should be market timers. At around 35 minutes in, he starts a thought about how we should use a "third party timing service" because a bear market early in retirement is so deadly. And toward the very end, at about 46:30, he talks about how a 1970's style inflation blows up all retirement planning. Many of you know that I am very concerned about a 1966-1981 "low asset returns/high inflation" scenario. So I actually agree with Bengen and think that recency has made many of these Boglehead conversations too dismissive against the chance of another big inflation. That being said, the father of the 4% rule really doesn't have an answer and kind of throws up his hands, implying all much financial planning goes out the window if this happens. It would be interesting if Rick Ferri or Jon Luskin could interview Bengen to focus on both of these issues to better tease out his thinking on market timing and inflation. Yeah, the answer is probably that you can't market time (Bengen's own adventure in timing failed, by his own admission, although he still thinks we should do it). And serious inflation, at least in the short run, hurt most asset classes (except TIPS, which might have a taxflation problem for large taxable investors). Also, on this other thread (that I started), there is an unreconciled discussion about Bengen claiming that SWRs are higher for tax deferred/free accounts than for taxable accounts
viewtopic.php?t=444440
I admit that I'm not exactly asking a question here, but scratching my head, at the disconnect here, on this "Withdrawal Rate Rumble" session video, looking for more discussion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AKwCwKxZ7k
I forget if Bill Bengen has been at any of the prior conferences, but I'm particularly tuned into him at this year's, as I've followed his work almost since the beginning in 1994. He has not been part of the Boglehead world, directly, until recently, but his work has been discussed by us forever. He's clearly a genius and early-on recognized that computer power could help solve retirement planning issues that were previously just fuzzy guesses. But around 2010, I found out that he didn't eat his own cooking and got out of the market. I later found out, as he readily admits now, that he didn't get back in until late and it cost him dearly.
Now, on the 2024 Conference "Withdrawal Rate Rumble" session (link posted here, below), he says two things that, frankly, make me a bit crazy. One is that we should be market timers. At around 35 minutes in, he starts a thought about how we should use a "third party timing service" because a bear market early in retirement is so deadly. And toward the very end, at about 46:30, he talks about how a 1970's style inflation blows up all retirement planning. Many of you know that I am very concerned about a 1966-1981 "low asset returns/high inflation" scenario. So I actually agree with Bengen and think that recency has made many of these Boglehead conversations too dismissive against the chance of another big inflation. That being said, the father of the 4% rule really doesn't have an answer and kind of throws up his hands, implying all much financial planning goes out the window if this happens. It would be interesting if Rick Ferri or Jon Luskin could interview Bengen to focus on both of these issues to better tease out his thinking on market timing and inflation. Yeah, the answer is probably that you can't market time (Bengen's own adventure in timing failed, by his own admission, although he still thinks we should do it). And serious inflation, at least in the short run, hurt most asset classes (except TIPS, which might have a taxflation problem for large taxable investors). Also, on this other thread (that I started), there is an unreconciled discussion about Bengen claiming that SWRs are higher for tax deferred/free accounts than for taxable accounts
viewtopic.php?t=444440
I admit that I'm not exactly asking a question here, but scratching my head, at the disconnect here, on this "Withdrawal Rate Rumble" session video, looking for more discussion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AKwCwKxZ7k
Statistics: Posted by Leesbro63 — Sat Dec 07, 2024 9:40 am — Replies 2 — Views 170