The fall in the NAV of bond funds in recent years was still somewhat painful to experience even for those who understood the possibility that the NAV would fall by the increase in interest rates x the average duration of the fund. But the comfort, if we didn’t sell, was an expectation that ‘everything would balance out’ as NAV would increase as interest rates fell, and before that happened we’d enjoy higher yields.
We have of course enjoyed higher yields for the past couple of years to start to dig us out of the hole but this year interest rates have fallen by 0.75% and given an average duration of six years or so using our ‘rule of thumb’ for VBTLX you might expect NAV to increase by >4%? But NAV is still down for the year.
Does the ‘explanation’ now include phrases like ‘inverted yield curve’ and ‘pending recession’ where other factors are impacting the value of the longer-term bonds in the fund?
We have of course enjoyed higher yields for the past couple of years to start to dig us out of the hole but this year interest rates have fallen by 0.75% and given an average duration of six years or so using our ‘rule of thumb’ for VBTLX you might expect NAV to increase by >4%? But NAV is still down for the year.
Does the ‘explanation’ now include phrases like ‘inverted yield curve’ and ‘pending recession’ where other factors are impacting the value of the longer-term bonds in the fund?
Statistics: Posted by TheDogFather — Thu Dec 19, 2024 10:49 am — Replies 3 — Views 135