Not looking to debate the usefulness of Monte Carlo simulations; I fully understand both sides of the arguments around the technique.
I have a couple of questions about how the typical configuration is set as basis for randomizing returns:
1. When considering a historical set of returns, is the standard deviation typically set at 95% confidence (i.e. 1.96x of base standard deviation)? I am doing this in my model.
2. When modeling future returns, is the raw random return typically used -- or is a "pessimism" factor applied? For example, right now I am taking the random number and degrading it by 20% of the average, modeling a "worse than average" future market. So if US Domestic stocks averaged 10.0%, I am shaving off 2% from any random return value I generate.
Reason I am asking is because my model seems to be less optimistic than some of the popular online simulators I've experimented with. I like to plan conservatively but don't want to be tougher on myself than necessary ; )
I have a couple of questions about how the typical configuration is set as basis for randomizing returns:
1. When considering a historical set of returns, is the standard deviation typically set at 95% confidence (i.e. 1.96x of base standard deviation)? I am doing this in my model.
2. When modeling future returns, is the raw random return typically used -- or is a "pessimism" factor applied? For example, right now I am taking the random number and degrading it by 20% of the average, modeling a "worse than average" future market. So if US Domestic stocks averaged 10.0%, I am shaving off 2% from any random return value I generate.
Reason I am asking is because my model seems to be less optimistic than some of the popular online simulators I've experimented with. I like to plan conservatively but don't want to be tougher on myself than necessary ; )
Statistics: Posted by chuckcintron — Thu May 30, 2024 1:32 pm — Replies 6 — Views 338